The SIML Filtering Method for Noisy Non–stationary Economic Time Series

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English | 2025 | ISBN: 9819608813 | 128 Pages | PDF EPUB (True) | 15 MB
In this book, we explain the development of a new filtering method to estimate the hidden states of random variables for multiple non-stationary time series data. This method is particularly helpful in analyzing small-sample non-stationary macro-economic time series. The method is based on the frequency-domain application of the separating information maximum likelihood (SIML) method, which was proposed by Kunitomo, Sato, and Kurisu (Springer, 2018) for financial high-frequency time series. We solve the filtering problem of hidden random variables of trend-cycle, seasonal, and measurement-error components and propose a method to handle macro-economic time series. The asymptotic theory based on the frequency-domain analysis for non-stationary time series is developed with illustrative applications, including properties of the method of Muller and Watson (2018), and analyses of macro-economic data in Japan.

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